Shortages Until 2028: International Giants' Capacity Peaks as China's Two Memory Titans Usher in a Historic "Golden Wind

If semiconductors are the lifeblood of modern industry, then memory chips (DRAM and NAND) are the "red blood cells" that keep this body running. Over the past three decades, this trillion-dollar market, dominated by US and Korean giants, has never seen a situation quite like today's: international giants' capacity has peaked, the supply gap continues to widen, and the shortage alarm has been sounded all the way to 2028.

Just as the world faces this anxious "chip shortage," China's two memory powerhouses — YMTC and CXMT — are breaking through the horizon at an unprecedented pace. This is a paradigm shift driven by AI, and even more so, an epic opportunity for domestic memory manufacturing.

I. The Long Shortage: A "Perfect Storm" of Supply-Demand Imbalance

The memory market in 2026 is no longer subject to the simple cyclical fluctuations of the past. Numerous industry experts and analyst firms have pointed out that due to the explosion in AI demand, the shortage of DRAM and NAND could persist all the way until 2028.

Behind this lies a profound structural contradiction in supply and demand. International giants like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are shifting their premium capacity to the more profitable HBM and enterprise SSDs. This "cream-skimming" capacity shift has created a massive supply vacuum in commodity markets such as DDR4/DDR5 and consumer-grade NAND.

The chairman of SK Hynix has even publicly warned that the shortage could last until 2030. For downstream terminal manufacturers, this is a nightmare, but for Chinese memory manufacturers in their ramp-up phase, this is the most perfect market entry window in history.

II. Advancing Together: An "Epic" Leap in Capacity and Technology

Facing this massive global supply gap, YMTC and CXMT are not slowing down; instead, they have launched an aggressive expansion plan.

1. YMTC: Aiming for Global Top Three

In the NAND Flash sector, YMTC is catching up at an unprecedented pace. In the first quarter of 2026, its revenue exceeded RMB 20 billion, with a global market share exceeding 10%, approaching the third-place global position.

To seize this opportunity, YMTC is pursuing an "epic" capacity expansion in Wuhan. In addition to its existing Fab 1 and Fab 2, a third fab is about to enter mass production, with plans to build two more new fabs. Once fully operational, its total capacity will double from the current 200,000 wafers per month to 400,000. Industry forecasts suggest that YMTC is poised to surpass Kioxia and SK Hynix to become the world's third-largest NAND manufacturer in the near term. Technologically, its 294-layer 3D NAND has achieved stable mass production, with performance directly comparable to international tier-one manufacturers.

2. CXMT: The Disruptor in DRAM

In the DRAM field, CXMT's rise is equally unstoppable. As the world's fourth-largest DRAM manufacturer, its global capacity share has reached approximately 11.1%, and is expected to grow to 13.9% by 2027.

CXMT is building a mega-fab in Shanghai, with planned capacity two to three times that of its existing Hefei facility. Even more exciting are the technological breakthroughs: CXMT has not only successfully launched 8000MT/s DDR5 products, but is also accelerating verification of HBM, a core AI track, with plans to achieve mass production within the year. Once HBM3 mass production is realized, CXMT will truly leap from being a "consumer-grade backup" to a "core supplier for AI computing power."

III. The Substitution Logic: From "Plan B" to "Must-Have"

In the past, international giants weren't afraid of losing market share when cutting production, because customers wouldn't dare adopt Chinese chips. But in 2026, the logic has completely changed.

With international giants raising prices across the board and extending lead times, the "high cost-performance" solution offered by Chinese manufacturers has become irresistible.

Data shows that Chinese manufacturers offer prices over 15% lower than international counterparts for the same specifications. And with breakthroughs in yield rates (YMTC's 294-layer yield exceeding 95%, CXMT's 17nm yield exceeding 90%), the quality gap has become negligible. More critically, when leading international PC manufacturers like HP, Dell, and Asus begin certifying domestically produced DRAM, it signifies that domestic memory has obtained a "global supply chain passport."

Against the backdrop of US-China tech competition, having a stable second supplier free from geopolitical interference has become a supply chain security necessity for global OEMs, transforming from a "backup option" into a must-have.

IV. Conclusion: The Golden Age Has Begun

2026 to 2028 will be the most important "golden three years" in the history of YMTC and CXMT.

In this super-cycle driven by AI, international giants are constrained by their existing capacity and aging fabs, resulting in slow expansion and high costs. Meanwhile, China's two titans, leveraging late-mover technological advantages, strong national policy support, and a vast domestic market, are conquering new territory on the global memory map.

This is not just a commercial tailwind, but a reshaping of the industry landscape. Just as China's new energy vehicles took a curve to overtake the competition, in the marathon of memory chips, YMTC and CXMT have already grabbed the baton to lead the next phase.